China-U.S. Collaboration Launches Powerful New Simulation

For over two years Climate Interactive has been working with Tsinghua University in China to create a learning tool to model the climate goals of Chinese provinces. Because of our work with Tsinghua, they have been able to provide the Chinese government with a new easy-to-use tool in order to meet their climate and energy goals.

China has committed to a 40-45% decrease in the carbon intensity of the overall Chinese economy by 2020. In order to meet this goal the Chinese government and provincial leaders set targets for the provinces to adjust their GDP, energy intensity, and fuel mix. To create true engagement from the leaders at all levels, however, there needed to be a shared understanding of how to reach these goals, and methods for calculating progress.

In order to create a tool to track the progress of the Chinese provinces, a team led by Professor Zhang Xiliang at Tsinghua University began using system dynamics models, the technology of which grew out of MIT Sloan School of Management and is behind C-ROADS. The system dynamics models are a contrast from the spreadsheet models that were used to set the targets, which are not geared towards flexible “what if” testing. What they sought was a user-friendly, interactive simulation such as C-ROADS, which has been used by multiple governments as part of the UN climate change negotiations. Professor Zhang’s Low Carbon Economy team had the data, an understanding of the Chinese energy system, and a staff of modelers to create the tool, but their partnership with the Climate Interactive team enabled them to put these elements together to create a successful model.

The New C-ROADS Simulation Has Amazing Climate Analysis Capabilities

Check out this short video to view the new features of C-ROADS.

(Click on the “Vimeo” word in the bottom right corner to view a larger version)

The top five improvements:

1. Choose from 14 different reference scenarios, pulled from EMF and SRES

2. Create emissions scenarios by changing Carbon intensity

3. Land use emissions are disaggregated by country (thanks to primary research funded by Heinz Center and TCG)

4. Flexible analysis of historical contribution by country to cumulative emissions, radiative forcing, and temperature (this feature is amazing — watch the video….)

5. Flexible analysis of effects of uncertainty

Dr. Phil Rice of Climate Interactive created this short video describing our “new tricks.” The improvements were completed primarily by Dr. Rice, Dr. Tom Fiddaman of Ventana Systems, Dr. Lori Siegel of Climate Interactive, and Tony Kennedy of Ventana Systems, through a contract with the US DOE and funding from Zennstrom Philanthropies, ClimateWorks Foundation, the Morgan Family Foundation, and others.

C-ROADS Version 2.0 — Thinking about drivers of emissions scenarios post 2020

A new simulation from the C-ROADS team is coming!

To fully address climate change, we’ll need to look at strategies, policies, and investments over the next decade that will affect greenhouse gas emissions for much longer into the future. (One big reason — fifteen times the needed Carbon abatement will happen post 2020!)

We’re working on an extension of C-ROADS that helps decision-makers take such a long term view.  The picture here captures many of the scenarios we can imagine.

Innovative Partnership Launches Freeware Online Climate Simulation

A new partnership of companies and NGOs committed to open source climate simulations has launched a freeware climate decision support tool.

Check it out here — click on the big “C-Learn” banner.

C-Learn is the more accessible, online version of the C-ROADS simulation, which was recently seen in US State Department Special Envoy Jonathan Pershing’s plenary address in Bonn Germany to the UNFCCC. Now you can explore how changes in fossil fuel emissions from three parts of the world, plus deforestation and afforestation, will affect CO2 concentrations, global temperature, and sea level rise. And you can make your own graphs to show others your simulation experiments.

Climate Wire Covers “Lightning-Quick” C-ROADS Simulation

Lauren Morello, reporter for Climate Wire, covered C-ROADS this morning!

SCIENCE: Lawmakers to test new, lightning-quick climate model  (Monday, March 16, 2009)
Lauren Morello, E&E reporter

In the intense atmosphere of international climate negotiations, it can be hard to keep track of countries’ shifting positions on greenhouse gas reductions, let alone what they will add up to after the emissions settle.

But a new climate model that can run on a laptop — and crunch complicated emissions numbers in less than a tenth of a second into a colorful, user-friendly display — could help diplomats understand how their decisions will play out.

“This is a tool that can be used in the middle of a conversation,” said Andrew Jones, program manager for the Sustainability Institute, one of the groups developing the model.

Creators of the model, known as C-ROADS, are dreaming big. They hope to convince negotiators to use the program at upcoming U.N. talks in Copenhagen this December, when the world will formulate the successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

Two Foundations Invest In Climate Interactive

We’re thrilled to announce that Zennström Philanthropies and the Morgan Family Foundation have both recently invested in Sustainability Institute’s work on Climate Interactive and its intention to use accessible simulations to help stabilize the climate.

Allison Robertshaw, program officer at Zennström wrote, “Zennström Philanthropies have been impressed by the work of the Sustainability Institute on their C-ROADS simulation.  With the need to reach an agreement in Copenhagen looming, this tool provides decision makers, negotiators and NGOs with a unique view into what is required from each country if we’re going to avoid an environmental catastrophe.  By making the impact of proposals clear in real time, we hope that it will spur the key actors into putting ambitious proposals on the table that have a realistic chance of halting climate change.”

Zennström also focused on helping us prepare for and complete a scientific review of the C-ROADS simulator. And the Morgan Family Foundation is focusing on making the simulator useful in the build-up to the UN conference in Copenhagen in December 2009, among other efforts.