Tag Archives: Copenhagen COP-15

Our Three Big Impacts

By Drew Jones, Beth Sawin, and Stephanie McCauley

What has our impact been?

Eight people, dozens of partners, five years, and two simulation models — what does it add up to?

Here’s our informal assessment of how much of a contribution we’ve made to the global effort to curb climate change

Together with our partners, we see three big areas. We have:

Christiana Figueres with Beth Sawin at the UN Climate Talks in Bonn, April 2010

1. Kept things honest. Our mentor Dana Meadows operated out of the theory that societies will only find fundamental solutions to the challenges we are facing when the escape hatches of wishful thinking have been closed, and we’ve been working hard to follow her lead. When, in the first week of the Copenhagen summit, some global organizations began proclaiming that success was close at hand, we re-grounded our global audience in biogeochemical realities and watched the “spinning” subside, with global effects. When, during the Durban summit, some parties argued that current pledges were good enough to meet climate goals, we ‘ran the numbers’ with clarity and precision, providing solid backing to the young people and climate advocates who were questioning such easy assertions (view our Durban results blog post). More recently, when voices rose to declare an energy miracle or natural gas bridge solution to climate, while dismissing efficiency and renewables, we ran the numbers, changed minds, and noted that the words of key thought-leaders changed as well.

“[Climate Interactive’s] software speaks numbers, not spin – and in the end it’s the numbers that count.” — Bill McKibben in the UK Guardian

2. Improved policy design by top decision-makers. We have helped powerful leaders advocate for sound long-term policy. We have made John Kerry better armed with scientific insight, Jonathan Pershing more exact, China’s climate ministry more able to reach targets, EU’s Jacquie McGlade more clear, Bill McKibben more numerate, international analysts empowered, Hal Harvey supported by modeling, the media more informed and millions of activists grounded in solid science.

The hundreds of C-ROADS users can be found worldwide in more than 70 countries.

3. Motivated, inspired, and empowered, creating new possibilities (while avoiding manipulation and zealotry). We have motivated action and reduced emissions through the hundreds of thousands of global professionals and citizens who have taught others with our tools (C-ROADS, C-Learn online, Scoreboard, iPad Pathways app, Climate Momentum, Bathtub), shown others our videos (Beth Sawin on the Scoreboard, Drew Jones on TEDx, Travis Franck’s webinar, John Sterman’s lecture), led their kids through our first or second science museum interactive exhibits, or lived a successful global climate deal through World Climate, our mock-UN “serious game” played around the world.

Not bad for eight people, dozens of partners, five years, and two simulation models. Let’s see what is next.

Please be in touch if you’d like to support our emerging work.

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Trevor Houser Uses C-ROADS to Conclude “2 Degrees C is Still Within Reach”

Trevor Houser, our colleague formerly of  the U.S. State Department, used C-ROADS to find hope in the Copenhagen Accord.

He wrote: “Either way, if countries follow through on their pledges and follow on with more aggressive action, keeping global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius is still within reach.”

Note — by our calculations, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to drop 3.3% per year for temperature to stay within 2 degrees C.

Put this finding together with Beth Sawin’s press release of yesterday and the message is: We’re not yet on track, but the goal is within reach.

NY Times’ Dot Earth blog picked up the finding here. (Yes, C-ROADS is “the model developed in part by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology”).

Posted here is a short video of Trevor Houser talking about the U.S. State Department’s use of C-ROADS.

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One Month After the Copenhagen Accord, Emissions Reductions Consistent With 2° Target Have Not Materialized

With January 31st as the ‘soft’ deadline for countries to submit to the UNFCCC their proposals for greenhouse gas emissions reductions under the Copenhagen Accord we’ve been hearing the question from colleagues and the press: do these submissions bring the world any closer to the goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5° or 2°C?

We’ve ‘run the numbers’ and our most recent  analysis shows essentially the same results that we reported December 19th at the close of the Copenhagen Summit: if current proposals were fully implemented average global temperature would overshot the 2° goal and would in fact  increase by approximately 3.9°C (7.0°F) by 2100.  Our press release contains more details on the analysis. Continue reading

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Planet 100 News Covers the Climate Scoreboard in Quick Video

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19 December 12:30am: Draft Copenhagen Accord Too Thin to Analyze

Copenhagen — As of 12:30 am on 19 December, the latest draft text for the Copenhagen Accord has too few quantifiable targets for our team to adequately analyze it. We look forward to using C-ROADS to calculating the long term impacts of the Accord as soon as possible.

Note that, as we explain here, the Climate Scoreboard presents the aggregate impact of national proposals, not the Copenhagen Accord.

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As Heads of State Talk Here in Copenhagen, We’ve Made Progress and Have Further To Go

Today, as the Heads of State gather here at the Copenhagen Conference, our calculations show that current confirmed proposals are not yet ambitious enough to limit temperature increase to 1.5-2°C (2.7-3.6°F) over pre-industrial temperatures. As shown above in the Climate Scoreboard, we estimate a temperature increase of 3.9°C (7.0°F) over pre-industrial if current proposals were implemented as compared to 4.8°C (8.7°F) temperature increase by 2100 without emissions reductions.

For details on calculations, assumptions, and the scientific methods behind the simulation, click here. Continue reading

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Breaking News from Copenhagen: National Emissions Reductions Proposals Currently Fall Short of the Targets Defined in the Draft Text from the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action

Writing from the Bella Center in Copenhagen, our Climate Interactive team is sharing analysis of Day 5 Draft Texts in COP15.

PDF of the full press release is here.

With less than a week to go, significant differences remain between the aggregate emissions reductions from current national proposals and the mitigation targets released yesterday in a draft text at the UNFCCC climate talks in Copenhagen. This draft text from the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) includes greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets that could limit global temperature increase by 2100 to 2.0°C (3.6°F) or less, relative to pre-industrial temperatures. However, current proposals from individual countries for their own actions would lead to temperature increase of approximately 3.8°C (6.8°F) in the same period.

Achieving the potential declared in the draft texts will require sufficient commitment to financing, technology transfer, monitoring, verification, and accountability to allow nations to commit to and achieve higher reduction targets than they have currently put on the table. This analysis does not seek to analyze the political viability of the draft text or make any judgment as to the sufficiency of any elements of the draft other than the emissions reduction targets specified. Continue reading

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Climate Interactive Presents C-ROADS and Scoreboard in Copenhagen

On Wednesday, here at COP15 in Copenhagen, the Climate Interactive team and partners presented the C-ROADS simulation and the Climate Scoreboard at the Bellona Room in the Bella Center to demonstrate our tools to support the negotiations. Watch a video of the presentation here.

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OneClimate.net Interviews Dr. Elizabeth Sawin in Copenhagen at COP15

For more on the Climate Scoreboard, click here.

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The Climate Scoreboard Reports the Global Deal in Copenhagen

Below is a video of a presentation Dr. Elizabeth Sawin gave introducing the Climate Scoreboard in Copenhagen on the second day of the UN negotiations.  You can see the full Scoreboard here.

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