Top Eleven Extensions of the C-ROADS Climate Simulation

February 9, 2010 by apjones

Since 2006, Sustainability Institute’s climate efforts — Climate Interactive and Our Climate Ourselves – operating along side our work with international policymakers, has achieved significant successes translating simulation-based insights in eleven different forms.

1. Embeddable Widget. The C-ROADS-based Climate Scoreboard spread virally through the climate policy world during the Copenhagen Conference and was embedded in thousands of blogs and webpages, reaching over half a million views.

2. Online Datasets. The International Herald Tribune, Newsweek, and Washington Post used the Excel files of model output that we post online, to create graphics for their media to report the Copenhagen Accord. And 350.org used the same data as part of a poster to influence delegates at the meetings.

3. Simulation Exhibits. A consortium of science museum exhibit designers convened by Brown University integrated the C-ROADS simulation into a “touch-table” exhibit that is now touring New England science museums.

4. “Sticky” Metaphors. Dr. John Sterman (a partner in Climate Interactive) developed the “carbon bathtub” as a framework that was published as the “Big New Idea” in National Geographic Magazine in December 2009.

5. Google Earth applications. NOAA’s Dr. Ned Gardiner used C-ROADS results to produce 3-D models of the earth, indicating the intensity of climate change impacts in different areas.

6. Role-Play Exercises and Serious Games. The “World Climate” Mock-UN C-ROADS-based exercise, designed at SI and MIT, has been led by dozens of leaders for thousands of people around the world, from high school students to oil executives to European Government officials. All materials are available online.

7. Citizen Workshops. “Our Climate Ourselves” workshops have empowered thousands of climate leaders. All materials, including PowerPoint decks, are shared online.

8. Online Simulation. The “C-Learn” online simulation, available free to anyone with internet access, has allowed thousands to experiment with a real climate simulation.

9. Sharing a Web Service. MIT’s “Center for Collective Intelligence” developed its “Climate Collaboratorium” where users can vote for their favorite climate strategy after testing the strategy in our “C-Learn” simulation, which is being shared electronically as a “web service.”

10. Videos. Interviews for TV, a TEDx talk, a motion graphics video of the Scoreboard, rally talks, University lectures, briefings on Capitol Hill – we’ve integrated simulation insights into many video forms.

11. Educational Flash Programs. Dr. John Sterman at MIT and a team funded by Schlumberger created animated bathtubs for educational uses.

Overall, we’ve identified at least eleven forms that allow us and others to use climate simulation insights, tools, data, and other media to empower action.

Trevor Houser Uses C-ROADS to Conclude “2 Degrees C is Still Within Reach”

February 5, 2010 by apjones

Trevor Houser, our colleague formerly of  the U.S. State Department, used C-ROADS to find hope in the Copenhagen Accord.

He wrote: “Either way, if countries follow through on their pledges and follow on with more aggressive action, keeping global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius is still within reach.”

Note — by our calculations, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to drop 3.3% per year for temperature to stay within 2 degrees C.

Put this finding together with Beth Sawin’s press release of yesterday and the message is: We’re not yet on track, but the goal is within reach.

NY Times’ Dot Earth blog picked up the finding here. (Yes, C-ROADS is “the model developed in part by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology”).

Posted here is a short video of Trevor Houser talking about the U.S. State Department’s use of C-ROADS.

One Month After the Copenhagen Accord, Emissions Reductions Consistent With 2° Target Have Not Materialized

February 4, 2010 by bethsawin

With January 31st as the ’soft’ deadline for countries to submit to the UNFCCC their proposals for greenhouse gas emissions reductions under the Copenhagen Accord we’ve been hearing the question from colleagues and the press: do these submissions bring the world any closer to the goal of limiting temperature increase to 1.5° or 2°C?

We’ve ‘run the numbers’ and our most recent  analysis shows essentially the same results that we reported December 19th at the close of the Copenhagen Summit: if current proposals were fully implemented average global temperature would overshot the 2° goal and would in fact  increase by approximately 3.9°C (7.0°F) by 2100.  Our press release contains more details on the analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

Science Museum Climate Change Exhibit Powered by C-ROADS

February 2, 2010 by smccauley

Guest post here by Mike Richards, from his Excellence By Design blog. Mike was one of the visionary founders of our “Open Source” and “Open Innovation” platform for Climate Interactive, back in 2007.

The exhibit below grew out of a partnership with Richard Polonsky of Brown University and Henry Kaufman and team of Tactable. It is installed in the Ecotarium in Worcester, Massachusetts.

There is a new, way cool interactive map of the future of our planet’s climate. Check out the Map of the Future below.  This new tool was developed as part of an NSF sponsored traveling museum exhibit. The interface is really great.

The reason I mention it is also because the science for the climate calculations is based on Climate Interactive’s simulation tool — C-ROADS.  I was lucky enough to be part of the original team who helped craft the vision for the tool, which was based on absolute adherence to scientific accuracy, speedy execution, and (my main contribution) to do so using an ‘open’ design approach to enable future community based enhancements and innovative uses…like the Map of the Future. Read the rest of this entry »

The “No Regrets” Climate Approach

January 29, 2010 by apjones

What kinds of things are we doing to prevent climate change? How many ALSO seem to be good ideas for many OTHER reasons other than avoiding catastrophic climate change?

Above is a rally speech I gave on the topic to a crowd on a windy day in Asheville, North Carolina.

Beth Sawin, my colleague and program co-director here at Sustainability Institute, inspired the theme through a series of blog posts on this topic. Read them  here and here.  Peter Senge too.

And Colin Beavan (“No Impact Man”) has what I think is the definitive list of secondary benefits of vigorous climate mitigation. Read it here. Thanks to John Sterman for pointing this out.

Top Ten Ways Climate Interactive and C-ROADS Delivered Results in Copenhagen

January 14, 2010 by apjones

The Climate Interactive team, led by Sustainability Institute, delivered big results in Copenhagen at the UNFCCC’s COP15 climate conference.

Bill McKibben wrote in the UK Guardian, from Copenhagen: “the only people who really understand what’s going on may be a small crew … called Climate Interactive. Their software speaks numbers, not spin – and in the end it’s the numbers that count.”

He is overstating our uniqueness, but here are the top ten most notable moments and achievements.

1. Obama heard (at least they tell us). From our office in Copenhagen hosted by the Rasmussen Foundation and Sea Change, 48 hours before President Obama’s arrival, we created two rounds of customized real-time C-ROADS analysis of the COP15 negotiations requested by and delivered to a top White House science advisor who briefed the President before his activities in Copenhagen.

2. Our Climate Scoreboard went viral. While we expected only dozens of blogs and Facebook pages to embed the “widget” we created, we found that over 1500 actually did and that sites around the world, in multiple languages, added the Scoreboard (supported by Morgan Family Foundation) to their online media. CBS, NPR, Boston Globe, YES!, Washington Post, ABC News, and Nature for example.  While we expected a couple thousand visits, we witnessed over 300,000 visits to the Scoreboard! See videos of Beth Sawin presenting it here and here.

3. Real time analysis of negotiations happened. As draft texts were released, we analyzed their impacts in C-ROADS (supported by Zennstrom Philanthropies) really fast. Press releases during Copenhagen are here.

4. C-ROADS analysis got to the negotiators. A dramatically leaked confidential UN document (reported in a scanned pdf version mid-conference by the UK Guardian) had the words “Climate Interactive” and “Climate Scoreboard” scrawled across the topCheck it out in the document. Read the rest of this entry »

US State Department’s Trevor Houser Hails C-ROADS as “Open Platform” and “Accessible” in Copenhagen

January 14, 2010 by apjones

Trevor Houser of the US State Department, speaking about C-ROADS-CP at the US Center in Copenhagen, December 2009.

Text is below. Read the rest of this entry »

C-ROADS China Collaboration Grows

January 14, 2010 by apjones

The collaboration of the C-ROADS team with Chinese climate analysts at Tsinghua University is growing via a university partnership.

At the recent UN conference in Copenhagen, Drew Jones of Sustainability Institute met with Professor He Jiankun of Tsinghua University (shown in the photo) to discuss extending and customizing the C-ROADS simulation to better match the energy development future in China.

And over the past two weeks, teams from Sustainability Institute, Tsinghua University, MIT, the Society for Organizational Learning, and Ventana Systems are collaborating to include important factors such as GDP, energy intensity, and fuel mix onsite at MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.

Some of the group at MIT in Cambridge are shown in the picture. Dr. John Sterman (MIT), Xiaohu Luo (Tsinghua), Lori Siegel (SI), Drew Jones (SI), Tom Fiddaman (Ventana), Zhou Li (Tsinghua), Peter Senge (MIT/SoL), Rebecca Niles (SI/STC).

350.org Used Our “Open Source” Climate Scoreboard Data in Copenhagen Poster

January 13, 2010 by apjones

The not-for-profit group 350.org used our widely-available C-ROADS output data to create their own poster to influence delegates in Copenhagen at COP15.

Near the end of the conference, the poster you see here was pasted all over the Bella Center and seen by thousands. Read the rest of this entry »

Anyone Know How We Got Scribbled on the Leaked UNFCCC Copenhagen Accord Document?

January 12, 2010 by apjones

Yeah, that’s us!

Climate Interactive” is our program and consortium.

Climate Scoreboard” is our embeddable widget on the state of the global deal.

3.9 and 770 are two numerical assessments of the deal, from our Scoreboard.

Bill McKibben is the head of 350.org who talked a lot about our work in Copenhagen.

And the image above is the top of the leaked UNFCCC confidential document shared in the UK Guardian and many blogs.  The full pdf is here.

Any tips about how we got there? Comment below or send us a note.  ClimateInteractive [at] sustainer.org.